Cheng_Can Cascades be Predicted?

Can Cascades be Predicted? Justin Cheng Stanford University jcccf@cs.stanford.edu Lada A. Adamic Facebook ladamic@fb.com P. Alex Dow Facebook adow@fb.com Jon Kleinberg Cornell University kleinber@cs.cornell.edu Jure Leskovec Stanford University... More

Can Cascades be Predicted?
Justin Cheng
Stanford University
jcccf@cs.stanford.edu
Lada A. Adamic
Facebook
ladamic@fb.com
P. Alex Dow
Facebook
adow@fb.com
Jon Kleinberg
Cornell University
kleinber@cs.cornell.edu
Jure Leskovec
Stanford University
jure@cs.stanford.edu
ABSTRACT
On many social networking web sites such as Facebook and Twitter, resharing or reposting functionality allows users to share others’ content with their own friends or followers. As content is
reshared from user to user, large cascades of reshares can form.
While a growing body of research has focused on analyzing and
characterizing such cascades, a recent, parallel line of work has
argued that the future trajectory of a cascade may be inherently unpredictable. In this work, we develop a framework for addressing
cascade prediction problems. On a large sample of photo reshare
cascades on Facebook, we find strong performance in predicting
whether a cascade will continue to grow in the future. We find that
the relative gr Less